Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 520

Chapter 520: Chapter 93: Calculating

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Developing South Africa was also one of Austria’s measures to deal with the agricultural crisis, as the newly created jobs were perfect for resettling bankrupt farmers and preventing a tide of unemployment.

Europeans have always held a strong interest in gold, and prospecting was the easiest path to wealth in this era. With enough luck, one could strike it rich.

Among the earliest Austrian immigrants to Africa, five out of ten started out through gold mining, and of the remaining five, two were involved in providing logistical services for gold mining operations.

In an era where every colonial power lacked immigrants, standing out among competitors was key, and propaganda was essential.

A beautiful pipe dream was indispensable; as for whether one could actually find a gold mine and get rich upon arrival, Franz could confidently say that ninety-nine percent would not.

There’s a joke that says it well: Two brothers ran off in search of a gold mine only to discover upon arrival that they had no clue how to prospect for gold.

The reality was exactly that, unless it was an open-pit gold mine with a particularly high gold content and visible to the naked eye, ordinary people wouldn’t be able to discover it even if they stumbled upon it.

Now that gold mines had been discovered, countless prospecting parties were searching in South Africa, and domestic elites were organizing their own teams. Most of the gold mines belonged to these people.

If not for the Vienna Government opening the function of purchasing gold mines, ordinary people who discovered gold mines would be able to sell directly to the government. Otherwise, even if they found gold mines, they would be incapable of mining them, and could even attract lethal trouble.

Seeing everyone so enthusiastic, Franz was quite indifferent. While others sought to strike gold and get rich, he was investing in local farms and plantations.

Experience proved that transmigrators were not omnipotent—on the map, a point could span thousands of square kilometers, with even slight deviations equating to hundreds of kilometers.

Finding a gold mine was entirely a matter of luck; although the gold mining area in South Africa was vast, there were no deposits spanning tens of thousands of square kilometers.

Finding gold mines through theoretical planning was hardly different from relying on luck. Renowned gold mining sites of later times didn’t even have names in this era.

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Even if such names had emerged, due to the butterfly effect caused by Franz, how large the error was could only be known by God.

Given this, it might as well be better to be indifferent. Prospectors might not necessarily make money, but those providing logistical support were certain to profit.

Investing in nearby farms and plantations, selling essential goods such as bread, cheese, fruits, vegetables, and meat products was a sure way not to incur losses.

Don’t be fooled by the outbreak of an agricultural crisis and the plummeting prices of agricultural products everywhere; such situations had little impact on the inland areas of Africa.

Grains could be imported, but cheese, fruits, vegetables, fresh meat products—these things couldn’t all be transported from the outside, could they?

Despite the advent of canned food, no one could endure eating that every single day.

If luck was on one’s side, perhaps the farm itself sat atop a gold mine. Who could be certain in such matters? When Franz was in West Africa, mineral deposits were discovered more than once beneath the Royal Plantation he had established.

In the South African region, it goes without saying that gold mines appeared in clusters. Buying land near a gold mine was certainly the right move; one could strike it big if there’s a mine underneath, and still make a modest profit without one.

News of the discovery of large amounts of gold mines in South Africa was still circulating within small circles, while the outside world remained submerged in the panic of the agricultural crisis.

Berlin, following the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, the Prussian Government became tense. This was a matter related to its own interests and left no room for negligence.

Somehow, Austria had become the barometer for agriculture in Europe, and Wilhelm I was keeping a close eye on the Vienna Government.

Observing the Vienna Government implementing the Fallow Law, limiting the increase in grain planting area and calling for other countries to reduce production, Wilhelm I did not feel relieved but rather more troubled.

Reducing grain output wasn’t just a matter of saying so; it involved various interests, most crucially those of the Agricultural Junker Aristocracy.

Times had changed; initially, as a grain-importing country, Prussia naturally didn’t worry about these problems, but now they had become a grain-exporting country.

If Russia was the most fervent in clearing new farmland and Austria followed close behind, then the Kingdom of Prussia ranked third. Over the past few years, the cultivated area of the Kingdom of Prussia had also increased by half.

There was high enthusiasm for growing grains, and lands that were previously wasted in Russian hands were now efficiently utilized by the Junker nobles.

Now the trouble came, as there was an overproduction of grain. It wasn’t just a slight surplus; according to data released by Austria’s Agriculture Department, Europe’s grain production exceeded demand by more than twenty-one percent.

No matter how much grain overproduction there was, grain-importing countries would not reduce their own capacity; it was the grain-exporting countries that needed to cut production.

Even if a portion of these grains were wasted for various reasons, the production that needed to be cut, when spread among countries, was still not a small number.

The main culprit causing this was Russia. Based on estimates of Russia’s agricultural planting area, if all of these grains could be exported, even if all other agricultural exporting countries stopped their exports, Europe would still not lack grain.

Reality is this cruel: the international market is simply too small.

As the agricultural population of each country increases, so does the amount of cultivated land, and with the improvement of agricultural technology, the grain production of each country continues to rise. Yet, the growth of the market lags far behind.

Take Great France as an example, due to the increase in domestic grain production, it is estimated that their import volume this year will decrease by two percentage points.

These data are released by Austria’s Agriculture Department, which publishes them annually. The reputation for accuracy has been established, and Wilhelm I has no doubts about it.

Calling for a collective reduction in grain capacity is not the first of its kind. Since 1870, Austria’s Agriculture Department has been issuing warnings about surplus grain capacity.

However, it has had no effect. Even Austria itself has not been able to reduce its capacity, let alone other countries.

“The agricultural crisis has indeed arrived, and the Austrians have already taken practical actions to reduce capacity. Today I have called everyone here to discuss whether we should follow suit.”

Deep down, Wilhelm I agrees with the reduction of grain capacity. If the market can’t be returned to normal, nobody can expect to live well.

“Your Majesty, Austria is the world’s largest agricultural exporter, and after the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, they are the most impacted.

Reducing production now is actually a last resort. International grain market prices have already collapsed; the more you export now, the more you lose.”

On the surface, the detonation of this agricultural crisis was due to the English-Russian agreement, but in reality, although Russian grain has only just entered the international market, it was Austria’s dumping activities earlier this year that caused grain prices to plummet.

According to the data we’ve collected, as of now, Austria has released about 34.2 million tons of agricultural products to the international market, with grain alone exceeding 30 million tons.

This has already surpassed their total international grain market turnover by 81% in 1871. If in the second half of the year, the Vienna Government doesn’t restore strategic reserves and buy back grain from the market, the prices will continue to plummet.

It seems to be just an excuse to block the Russians from returning to the international market, but in actuality, it is about dragging everyone down together.

If measures are not taken, the international grain prices will continue to be depressed over the next two to three years. During this period, the more grain everyone sells, the more they will lose. If they don’t sell, they can’t recapture their investments.

We only have a 6.6% share in international grain exports; even if we reduce capacity, we cannot reverse the situation. Unless the Russians agree to reduce production, this crisis cannot be resolved in a short time.”

The most urgent task is still to protect the domestic market. I suggest reducing agricultural and agricultural export taxes, and at the same time raising import tariffs on agricultural products. If necessary, we can follow Austria’s example of setting a minimum purchase price for grain to protect the farmers’ income.”

Maoqi’s opinion is very clear, the government cannot interfere with everyone’s freedom to plant. The reason is simple: if Prussia reduces production and Russians do not, then we are simply making a wedding dress for our enemies.

“Prime Minister, it’s easy to raise import tariffs on agricultural products, but we have to consider the chain reactions this may cause.

Prusso-Polish relations are at a critical juncture. If we now raise import tariffs on agricultural products, what will the Polish think?

If they retaliate by raising import tariffs on our industrial and commercial products, then the agricultural crisis will spread to industry.

Don’t forget that our financial situation is already very bad. If we do this, this year’s fiscal deficit will increase significantly. Perhaps it won’t be long before we can declare bankruptcy.”

It’s not that Gorman is unwilling to protect agriculture; as Finance Minister, he is very clear about the financial crisis in Prussia.

Just by reducing agricultural and agricultural export taxes, the income of the Kingdom of Prussia would decrease by more than 56 million Marks, which is already very dangerous.

If we raise import tariffs on agricultural products and as a result, Poland raises tariffs on Prussian industrial products, then Prussia’s fragile industrial and commercial sector would also suffer a severe blow.

This could trigger a chain reaction, potentially leading to an industrial crisis, and the losses that follow would be immense.

Prussia doesn’t have colonial markets to alleviate pressure, and in the international competition, they cannot beat England, France, and Austria, making the Polish market of vital importance to them.

Maoqi smiled indifferently and explained nonchalantly: “It’s not that severe. The Polish wouldn’t dare to turn against us.

To deal with them, it’s easy—just incite some of the radical Polish groups to make territorial demands on Austria, and then we step in to clean up the mess.”

This explanation left Gorman speechless; it’s not a problem, as Poland right now is not a normal country, complete chaos from within.

This tactic wouldn’t work on other countries—no one would be so reckless. But Poland is an exception, and they are perfectly capable of such actions.

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